UBS raises its storage chip price forecast again, predicting that the DRAM shortage will last until 2028

BlockBeats news, on July 3, UBS stated that based on industry research, it has raised its DDR contract price benchmark expectation to a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32% in Q3 2026 and 18% in Q4 2026, previously forecasting increases of 17% and 12% respectively. UBS continues to expect the DRAM industry to remain in a supply shortage at least until 2028. By 2027, the gap between DRAM demand growth and supply growth is expected to widen to 17%.

If we assume that downstream inventory is not digested in 2027, meaning that after restocking in the second half of 2026, clients still have sufficient inventory, the supply shortage rate will worsen from 8.1% in 2026 to 13.6% in 2027. UBS stated that both of these levels have not been seen in the past 30 years.

On the NAND side, UBS currently forecasts a quarter-on-quarter price increase of 30% in Q3 2026 and 12% in Q4 2026, and expects the NAND upcycle to last at least until Q4 2027. UBS also raised its memory industry revenue forecast to $992 billion in 2026 and $1.763 trillion in 2027. The main risk lies in the affordability of hyperscale cloud service providers, especially as they still need to continue tapping capital markets to finance capital expenditures.