Dogecoin trades at $0.075 as futures open interest jumps to $1.04 billion despite ETF outflows

Technical setup points to short-term rebound

The recovery in Dogecoin began from the $0.0700 support area. Chart analysis signals the emergence of a potential reversal pattern indicating short-term upward momentum. The next significant resistance is at the descending trendline positioned at $0.0776, which traders are closely monitoring.

Should Dogecoin decisively break above this level, the price could target the 50-day exponential moving average at $0.0863. Despite this short-term optimism, DOGE still trades below both its 50-day average and the longer-term 200-day EMA, located at $0.1093.

Trader Tardigrade notes that DOGE is currently sitting on the lower boundary of its long-standing bullish pennant formation on the three-month chart, suggesting that rather than waiting for a breakdown, traders may consider gradually building positions in this zone.

ETF outflows persist, but retail interest rises

On the institutional side, momentum remained subdued. Dogecoin-focused exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows totaling $871,110 on Thursday. This marked the third day of outflows since the first DOGE ETFs began trading toward the end of 2025.

The total net assets of major DOGE ETFs stand at approximately $13.7 million. This overall level suggests that these instruments have yet to provide strong or lasting price support for Dogecoin.

Conversely, the futures market has seen renewed interest from individual traders. Open interest in DOGE futures grew by more than 7% in the last 24 hours, reaching $1.04 billion. The funding rate rose to 0.0099, signaling that traders holding leveraged long positions are incurring higher costs.

Historical July performance, supply trends weigh on price

Historical data suggests a more cautious outlook for Dogecoin in July. The median return for the month over the past 12 years stands at minus 4.6%, with only five Julys closing in positive territory during this period.

Compared to a year ago, DOGE has dropped roughly 55% and remains about 90% below its May 2021 all-time high. This long-term weakness persists despite recent short-term recoveries, underscoring ongoing downward pressure.

Dogecoin is known for having no fixed supply cap. Approximately 5.2 billion new DOGE are issued each year, translating to an annual inflation rate of about 3.4%. In the absence of a burn mechanism or staking-based offset, the market must absorb around 14 million new DOGE daily to maintain price stability.

On the daily chart, the relative strength index has bounced to 32, while a bullish crossover in the MACD indicator may suggest that selling pressure is starting to ease.

In the near term, $0.0700 remains the main support level for Dogecoin. Should selling intensify, $0.0642 emerges as the next key support zone.