QCP: Bitcoin Returning to Above $60,000 Eases Market Fears, But Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectation Still Lacks Support

BlockBeats News, July 3rd. In a post on July 3rd, QCP Capital stated that Bitcoin briefly dropped below the key support level of $58,000 on Wednesday, hitting a low of around $57,700. It then rebounded after the U.S. June non-farm payroll data came in below expectations, reclaiming the $60,000 level. Ethereum showed a stronger performance, returning above $1,700 and bouncing nearly 10% from its mid-week low.

The options market quickly absorbed the previous panic sentiment, with short-term implied volatility decreasing and the term structure returning to a contango market. Bullish options expiring in July became the dominant trade, and volatility sellers regained the advantage.

However, the non-farm payroll data this time was not enough to support a dovish turn by the Federal Reserve. Accelerating wage growth, declining unemployment rate, and continued strong consumption all indicate that the Fed still has room to maintain its hawkish stance. Despite Bitcoin spot ETF seeing a net inflow of $224 million after ending six consecutive days of outflows, U.S. bonds and stocks have yet to confirm a broad-based risk-on sentiment. Therefore, the current situation appears more like a temporary rebound in the crypto market. The market still needs to observe whether this rally can gain validation from a wider range of assets.