Analysis: The hodling ratio of long-term holders has continuously increased to around 78%. August may become a critical window to observe whether there will be a buy-side continuation from the lows seen in February.

BlockBeats News, July 3rd. Analyst Darkfost stated in a post that currently Long-Term Holders (LTH) hold about 15.6 million BTC, accounting for approximately 78% of the circulating supply, and this ratio continues to rise. By December 2023, this figure is estimated to be around 16.8 million BTC. Subsequently, long-term holders conducted large-scale distribution at multiple tops in this cycle, which significantly influenced the market trend.

The current increase in LTH holdings corresponds to chips bought about six months ago when the price of BTC was around $90,000 completing the "long-term holding" transformation. This does not necessarily mean that long-term holders are continuing to accumulate. Since this metric is based on the UTXO model, BTC needs to be held for a full 6 months to be counted as LTH. Therefore, at present, it can only be inferred that the number of BTC entering the LTH state is higher than the amount sold by long-term holders.

Furthermore, if this metric continues to rise significantly in August, it will reflect chips bought during February, when BTC dropped below $60,000, beginning to enter the long-term holding stage. At that time, it can be further observed whether the market downturn truly sparked new demand. Following a pattern consistent with history, the LTH holding ratio quickly rose from the end of the bear market to the first peak of the bull market during this cycle. Subsequently, it entered a stage where long-term holders distributed chips to the market.