S&P 500: Dovish repricing lifts breadth – Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank strategists Jim Reid and colleagues note that a softer US jobs report reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening in 2026, with just 30 bps of hikes priced by December. US Treasuries rallied at the front end, while the S&P 500 was held back by semiconductor weakness even as the equal-weighted S&P 500 hit fresh highs. The team highlights broad equity strength underpinned by lower Oil prices and dovish rate repricing.
Broad US equities gain as chips lag
"Ahead of that, markets put in another strong performance yesterday, as an underwhelming US jobs report led to mounting hopes that the Fed wouldn’t hike rates this year. Indeed, the newsflow was pretty dovish in general, as we saw Brent crude trade within touching distance of $70/bbl for the first time since February, though it ultimately settled +0.32% higher on the day at $71.80/bbl."
"But because payrolls grew by less than the +113k reading expected, the print also helped to push back against the prospect of an imminent rate hike. Indeed, the details included downward revisions to the April and May prints of -74k in total, which took the 3-month average for payrolls down to +111k, so relative to expectations it generally underwhelmed."
"This backdrop of lower oil prices and a dovish repricing was generally a very strong one for equities. That was particularly clear in Europe given its exposure to the energy shock, and the STOXX 600 (+1.41%) hit a new record high, as did the DAX (+2.16%). In the US, equities also did very well for the most part, though the S&P 500 index rose by a mere hundredth of a point to 7483.24 (+0.0001%) as its advance was curtailed by another slump in chip stocks."
"Indeed, the Philly semiconductor index was down -5.44% yesterday, building on its -6.27% decline on Wednesday, with all 30 companies in the index losing ground. So given that semiconductor stocks make up around a sixth of the S&P 500, it was tough for the index to gain much traction, even though 70% of its constituents still advanced on the day."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
Wall Street giants collectively raise rate hike forecasts, US Treasury futures continue to fall, gold drops over 1% to break 4000
After the US October CPI exceeded expectations, Goldman Sachs and Nomura added a forecast for an interest rate hike in March next year, while Deutsche Bank included a forecast for a rate hike in January next year. Currently, the market has fully priced in a 25 basis point rate hike in December, with a 13% probability for a 50 basis point hike. On Wednesday, the US Treasury spot market was closed, but Treasury futures continued to fall, with corresponding yields rising by about 2 to 4 basis points, and spot gold came under pressure, dropping by 1.1%.
No Need to Worry About the Cooling Down of AI Data Center Construction? The US Import Boom Is Unlikely to Subside in the Short Term, Real Impact May Come in 2029
It takes an average of 4.8 years from finalizing investment to starting construction of a data center project, and an additional 2.6 years from construction start to becoming operational. Servers usually cannot be installed until after the building structure and racks are completed. For trade partners such as Taiwan (China), South Korea, and Mexico who rely on US data center supply chain demand, the inertia in construction timelines provides at least a one- to two-year buffer for future exports.
Federal Reserve Major Debate: When Should the Tenure of “Number Three” Williams End?
The main point of contention is whether Williams should step down in June 2028, upon completing a full 10-year term, or in June 2027, when he reaches the mandatory retirement age of 65. Analysts point out that the Federal Reserve Board holds ultimate discretion; if he leaves early, Fed Chair Waller would be able to assert greater control over the appointment to this critical position. However, forcing Williams to shorten his term could easily be interpreted as political manipulation. Williams himself is expected to serve until June 2028.
Crypto prices
More
