US employment data cools significantly, silver rebounds strongly, awaiting stress test
The key trigger for this round of gains comes from the significant cooling of US employment data. The latest nonfarm payrolls report shows that only
Following the data release, the market quickly adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path. According to interest rate futures market pricing, the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped to about
From a macro perspective, silver is also benefiting from a temporary relief in inflation pressures. Persistently falling energy prices are a key variable, as crude oil has weakened due to easing Middle East geopolitical risks and resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, indirectly suppressing overall inflation expectations. Against the backdrop of both inflation and interest rates falling, silver's financial and inflation-hedging attributes are both supported.
On the geopolitical front, although indirect negotiations between the US and Iran have failed to make a breakthrough, market concerns about systemic supply disruptions have visibly diminished, causing the safe-haven logic for precious metals to return more to macroeconomic factors rather than single geopolitical drivers.
On the 4-hour chart, silver maintains a clear bullish arrangement, but the RSI has entered a relatively high zone and short-term momentum has slowed somewhat, with the MACD red bars beginning to contract, indicating a slowdown in the pace of the rise. If price consolidates above $62 with increased trading volume, the trend may continue; otherwise, failure to hold $62 could lead to a high-level consolidation or correction phase. Overall, the short-term trend remains bullish, but the risk of increased volatility is rising accordingly.
Editor’s summary:
The current rally in silver has mainly been driven by significantly weaker US employment data, which has raised market expectations for a policy shift by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, easing inflation pressures and falling energy prices have together reinforced an accommodative environment. Silver continues its rebound supported by both lower real interest rates and a weaker USD, but has now entered a more volatile high-level zone in the short term. The next moves will depend on further confirmation from upcoming US economic data and future signals from the Federal Reserve, with a strong tug of war existing between trend continuation and technical pullback.
Editor: Zhu Henan
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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