Report: “Rising inflation” trend seen as the most significant change in the fixed income market in the first half of the year

老虎证券2026/07/03 06:31

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This seasoned fixed income fund manager noted that, historically, geopolitical conflicts often trigger a shift towards high-quality assets, boosting U.S. Treasuries and thereby lowering yields. She wrote: "However, after the outbreak of conflict involving Iran, concerns over inflation dominated the market, pushing yields higher—especially at the short end of the yield curve." She explained that, as a result, market expectations underwent a dramatic shift: the market originally reflected expectations for more than two rate cuts, but now is discussing the possibility of one or even two rate hikes.

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