Fuel imports shock and crude oil outflows create greater divergence in the ruble's performance

⑴ Russian central bank officials stated that, despite the intensified domestic gasoline shortage following drone attacks on refining facilities and the beginning of gasoline imports by sea from countries such as India to ease supply pressure, this factor is not expected to create significant depreciation pressure on the ruble, as increased crude oil exports will provide a hedging effect on the trade front.⑵ Russia has currently launched a monthly gasoline import plan of approximately 400,000 tons, with related cost estimates at around 600 million rubles. Meanwhile, queues at domestic gas stations remain prominent. From a foreign exchange mechanism perspective, increased imports usually mean higher demand for foreign currency, but the central bank believes that, since part of the crude oil cannot be processed domestically and is instead exported, the overall change in trade flow is limited and will not significantly alter the supply and demand structure for foreign exchange.⑶ Market data shows that the ruble has depreciated by about 10% since early June, but recently experienced a short-term rebound due to central bank interest rate policy signals. Analysts pointed out that the current ruble trend is more influenced by distortions in trade structure and the pace of energy exports; while the fuel crisis brings marginal pressure, as long as crude oil exports remain resilient, there is still some buffer space against sustained impacts on the exchange rate.