Analyst: Circulating loss ratio in the current BTC bear market has risen to 54%, potentially surpassing the previous peak

```htmlJinse Finance reported that on July 2, crypto analyst Murphy published an article stating that the proportion of circulating losses can be used to compare the "pain level" of investors in each round of bear markets — that is, to measure the extreme range of market sentiment after quantification. Due to factors such as low-cost chips accumulating, bear market bottoms rising, and a more mature holder structure, the proportion of circulating losses at the bottom of each bear market decreases compared to the previous round. For example, the peak value was 64% in 2015, 60% in 2019, and 55% in 2022; and when BTC fell to $58,000 on June 30, this proportion rose to 54%. This is the highest value seen so far in the current cycle. If the declining trend of the past 10 years continues, then 54% is already very close to the previous cycle’s peak; indicating that $58,000 is already very near the bottom.However, recently I've also been thinking about one issue: in this bull market cycle, a large portion of ancient low-cost chips have been moved, and major institutions have taken over at high positions and are still holding large amounts, which has also pushed up the overall cost base for LTH. These chips are now all floating losses, and if they remain unmoved, the base for loss-making chips becomes larger. So, will this break the previous pattern, meaning that the proportion of circulating losses at this bear market bottom will exceed the previous peak of 55%? I think it's possible. But my personal judgment is that even if it exceeds, the difference won’t be too large, probably between 55% and 60%.```