Crypto analyst Ali Martinez said that signals indicating a long-term market reversal are emerging in major crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin. According to Martinez, the Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential indicator is giving a bullish signal for Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana on the monthly charts.
The analyst noted that trend exhaustion signals, especially those seen in higher timeframes like monthly charts, are significant. Martinez stated that in the past, multiple major crypto assets simultaneously generating monthly bullish signals indicated seller fatigue and long-term market lows.
Another data point highlighted by Martinez concerned the profit and loss status of Bitcoin’s supply. According to the analyst, for the first time in this cycle, the amount of Bitcoin held at a loss reached 10.45 million BTC, surpassing the 9.60 million BTC held at a profit.
Martinez said that the fact that more than half of the circulating Bitcoin supply is at a loss indicates that the speculative bubble in the market has largely cleared. The analyst argued that such crossovers have only been seen very close to major cycle bottoms in Bitcoin’s 15-year history.
Looking at past examples, a similar intersection first occurred in September 2011, and Bitcoin bottomed out in November 2011, starting a new bull market. The second intersection took place in September 2014, and after the market consolidated under these conditions until October 2015, it entered a new expansion period.
The third intersection, seen in November 2018, coincided with one of the harshest periods of the bear market. Following this, Bitcoin began a new bull cycle in March 2019. A similar intersection occurred during the liquidity crisis of March 2020, but this lasted only 17 days, and Bitcoin recorded a strong recovery by April 2020.
According to Martinez, the first supply intersection of the current cycle officially occurred in June 2026, and the metrics have continued to move in the opposite direction since then. The analyst argued that while such periods have lasted from a few weeks to a few months in past data, Bitcoin is currently trading in a region of high-reliability accumulation.
