Nomura Refutes Semiconductor Peak Theory: 'Epic Supply Gap' Ahead, Price Increases and Profit Upgrades Remain Key Catalysts

On July 1, Nomura warned that the AI semiconductor cycle is far from peaking, with an 'epic' supply chain mismatch expected in the second half of 2026. As cloud vendors continue to expand capital expenditures, shortages in advanced packaging, PCBs, and CCLs will drive price increases and profit upgrades. Although TSMC is aggressively expanding its wafer-level packaging capacity, the real supply bottleneck will shift to wafer-level substrates (WoS) and smaller components such as printed circuit boards (PCBs) and copper-clad laminates (CCLs). This structural shortage will directly exacerbate price volatility in the short-term market, but it also confirms the long-term sustainability of this cycle.