Short-term strategy for US crude oil: trending downward with a recommendation to sell on rallies

(1) Analysis: The reopening of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has brought supply back into the market, easing concerns over a disruption in Middle Eastern supply and causing risk premiums to continue to retreat. At the same time, indirect communications between the US and Iran remain uncertain, but short-term expectations of supply surplus dominate pricing. EIA inventory and US travel season demand provide partial support, but are unlikely to change the overall pressured structure. Technically, prices are oscillating around $70, with direction yet to be confirmed.(2) Key focus: Geopolitical situation, inventory data, US Dollar Index(3) Resistance: 70.50, 71.00, 71.80(4) Support: 69.50, 69.00, 68.50