CICC: Gold may currently be overpriced due to excessive rate hike expectations

Golden Ten Data reported on July 1st that the latest research report from CICC points out that gold may have already been over-priced on rate hike expectations. A Federal Reserve rate hike is still not the base case, and the gold market may have excessively priced in rate hike expectations, leaving potential room for pullbacks within the year. The CICC macro team believes that employment and consumption pressures, as well as the growing financing demand from the US AI economy, may make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to turn hawkish in substance, and monetary policy may be "hawkish in name, dovish in practice." According to the interest rate expectation model implied by gold prices, rate hike expectations have been priced in even more than those in the interest rate futures market. Looking ahead, after the decline in oil prices is further reflected in US short-term inflation data, gold market pricing of rate hike expectations may be corrected, and there could be opportunities for short-term capital replenishment in the futures market at that time.