The Kaspa [KAS] network’s Toccata hard fork was completed successfully on Tuesday, June 30. This upgrade introduces smart contract functionality while adding support for KRC-20 tokens.
The price of the KAS token rallied 20.38%, from a low of $0.0266 on Thursday, June 25, to $0.032 on the day of writing. This price surge likely came as a result of speculators and traders positioning themselves for the hard fork.
However, the altcoin has shed 7.8% within 10 hours of trading. What should KAS traders expect next?
The Kaspa long-term price downtrend
Source: KAS/USDT on TradingView
On the 1-day timeframe, the structure of Kaspa has been steadily bearish. The latest bearish leg was made earlier in 2026, from $0.0532 to $0.0249. Since February, KAS has lacked a decisive long-term trend and has twice managed to challenge the $0.04 supply zone.
It was rebuffed in March and May, and the market-wide sell-offs in the past two months have pushed KAS closer to the $0.025 swing low.
The MACD was moving below the zero line to show bearish market momentum. Meanwhile, the CMF was at -0.17, well below the -0.05 threshold that signals significant capital outflows.
The price structure and technicals agree on a bearish long-term outlook.
Traders’ call to action- Sell the news event confirms bearish sentiment
Source: KAS/USDT on TradingView
On the 1-hour timeframe, the recent gains tilted the MACD briefly in bullish favor, and the CMF also signaled increased buying pressure over the past five days. The $0.03 local resistance was overcome briefly as the hardfork got closer to going live.
In recent hours, the swift sell-off confirmed that the short-term gains were only used as a selling opportunity.
Source: CoinGlass
The liquidation heatmap also noted a build-up of short liquidation levels just above the $0.03 round-number resistance. The price move above swept this magnetic zone neatly and has already begun to reverse.
In the coming days and weeks, a price drop to $0.0249 and $0.020 was a possibility swing traders and investors must be prepared for.
Final Summary
- The recent Kaspa token price gains were part of a sell-the-news type event as the Tocatta Hardfork got closer.
- The long-term price trend was bearish and a drop below the February 2026 swing low at $0.0249 appeared likely.
