Jefferies: The "CLARITY Act" Faces a Crucial Senate Test, May Heighten Volatility in the Crypto Market

BlockBeats news, on June 30, investment bank Jefferies stated in its latest report that the US "CLARITY Act" still faces significant legislative hurdles in the Senate, and legislative developments in the coming weeks may intensify volatility in the crypto market.

Jefferies pointed out that although the bill previously passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, there are only about 20 legislative days left before the August congressional recess. The Senate still needs to complete bill consolidation, procedural votes, coordination with the House version, and submit it for presidential signature, so time is extremely tight. According to Polymarket data, the probability of this bill passing by the end of 2026 has dropped from 70% in mid-May to 48%.

Jefferies believes that if the bill goes through successfully, it will establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, prompting banks, asset management firms, and exchanges to accelerate the deployment of tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and other businesses, as well as facilitating more crypto ETFs and crypto infrastructure company IPOs. If the legislation is delayed, it may prolong regulatory uncertainty and cause traditional financial institutions to slow down their blockchain business expansion.

The report expects that the bill's progress will continue to affect the market performance of crypto concept stocks and certain crypto assets, including Circle (CRCL), an exchange (COIN), and Bullish (BLSH). Jefferies also pointed out that, in the long run, compared with regulatory changes, the bigger challenge for stablecoin issuer Circle still comes from competition with banks, fintech, and payment companies.