Strategist: The current threshold for Japan to intervene in the yen is relatively high

Golden Ten Data reported on June 30 that JPMorgan strategist Ikue Ito stated the intervention trigger point may now be higher if Japan’s Ministry of Finance adopts the “stealth intervention” approach used in 2024 operations. She wrote that the limited effectiveness of the last intervention could also make the Ministry of Finance more cautious about entering the market too quickly, and pointed out that Tuesday’s market movement suggests stop-losses and option barriers near the 162-162.50 range have already been triggered. State Street Global Advisors senior fixed income strategist Masika remarked that breaking through 162 reinforces the view that yen depreciation is being driven by momentum, and the market now regards the 163-165 range as the next key technical level and psychological target, with positioning and policy risks becoming sharper in this interval. He noted that before the release of Non-Farm Payroll data, the threshold for immediate intervention appears slightly higher, as the authorities may wish to assess whether US dollar strength is fundamentally driven. Speculative positions remain heavily net short. According to US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, as of the week ended June 23, leveraged funds increased short yen positions to 115,033 contracts, near the highest levels since November 2017.