Goldman Sachs: AI Investment Wave to Dominate Q2 Earnings Season for S&P 500, but Investors Concerned About ROI

On June 30, Goldman Sachs strategist Ben Snider projected that the AI investment wave will continue to dominate the S&P 500's Q2 earnings season. He expects S&P 500 constituent earnings to grow approximately 22% year-over-year for Q2; among these, Nvidia and Micron are likely to contribute about 40% of the overall earnings increase, while AI infrastructure-related stocks will account for nearly 60%. This indicates that although AI-related stocks have recently experienced rotation and differentiation, AI remains one of the most significant sources of growth in the U.S. stock market from an earnings perspective. Goldman Sachs' assessment also suggests that the current bull market is not solely reliant on valuation expansion. The S&P 500 has risen nearly 20% over the past year, primarily driven by earnings growth rather than further increases in price-to-earnings ratios. However, the focus of the earnings season is shifting. Investors have largely accepted that major cloud providers like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta will continue to invest heavily in capital expenditures. The real question has become whether these expenditures can generate sufficient revenue, profit margins, and cash flow. In other words, the market wants to see not just AI server orders, but also the return on investment from AI.