Will gold prices rise or fall in the second half of the year? This key level is crucial!

　　Source: China Business Journal

　　Today is the last day of June. May all the unpleasant things from the first half of the year drift away with the wind, and may all that is beautiful in the second half of the year arrive as scheduled! Good morning everyone~

　　Is it still a good time to buy gold in the second half of this year? Let’s talk about it↓

　　

　　“

,” said Wang Hongying, president of the China (Hong Kong) Institute of Financial Derivatives Investment Research.

　　Yuan Zheng, precious metals researcher at Galaxy Futures, said,

, and for gold it has high strategic significance. “Round number thresholds themselves tend to form self-fulfilling support or resistance, and currently a large number of bull stop-loss orders and options-related positions are concentrated around $4,000. ”

　　A research report released by CITIC Futures stated that due to the dual pressure of the dollar and interest rate expectations on gold, and against the backdrop of a technical breakdown, it will be hard for gold to quickly reverse its downward trend, with significant resistance to any rebound.

　　On June 24, as the Federal Reserve clearly shifted to a “hawkish” stance, international gold prices remained subdued, and major Wall Street banks also successively lowered their gold price targets.

　　Jerry Prior, CEO of the $1.7 billion Mount Lucas Management hedge fund, believes that

　　Looking towards the end of the year, Jerry Prior said that as central bank demand resurfaces and structural de-dollarization trends continue to support investment inflows into precious metals,

　　Although Jerry Prior remains optimistic about gold, he acknowledges that investors may face greater volatility in the short term. Continuing rises in interest rates and stable inflation expectations may temporarily put pressure on gold. He noted that gold does not always perform well during periods of high inflation, especially when rising interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

　　

, a reduction of as much as $500, and characterized its near-term strategy as “tactically cautious.”

　　Notably, Goldman Sachs has been one of the most steadfast and high-profile bullish voices in the gold market in recent years. A little more than a year ago, the bank was still boldly recommending investors to “buy gold aggressively,” and accurately predicted an epic rally.

　　Goldman Sachs’ commodities research team outlined two main reasons for lowering its target price in the report: first, its

, meaning there will be no more rate cuts within 2026, which will significantly dampen expectations for interest-rate-sensitive gold ETF demand.

　　Second,

, which significantly eased market concerns about the independence of developed-market central banks, making it unlikely that gold’s demand as a macro-policy hedge tool would rebound as previously expected.

　　Yang Delong, chief economist at Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that

, but it cannot be confirmed that a rate cut will definitely occur. Many investors are worried that the gold price will fall all the way down. .

Editor: Zhu Henan