SemiAnalysis: The latest US economic data contains substantial noise, while AI infrastructure remains booming

BlockBeats news, on June 29, SemiAnalysis published an article stating that the latest U.S. economic data contains a large amount of noise. The upward revision to Q1 GDP was mainly due to reduced imports, one-third of the growth in personal income in May was due to a one-time farm relief, PCE inflation soared, driven by energy prices, the sharp drop in durable goods orders was caused by a reversal in aircraft orders, all these special factors will revert to the mean, and the overall economic picture changes once stripped out.

The inflation in goods caused by tariffs is a one-time price shock and will disappear from year-on-year data in about 12 months, but consumers' actual purchasing power is permanently reduced and will not recover as inflation falls. Goods inflation has now surpassed services inflation, demonstrating the transmission effect of tariffs.

SemiAnalysis believes that despite macro data fluctuations, AI capital expenditure is a real and sustained trend. In Q1 GDP, equipment and software contributed 1.55 percentage points, four times more than consumer contributions. Core capital goods orders grew by 1.6%, and AI data center construction is rapidly increasing its share in the economy and will not revert to the mean.