Goldman Sachs: U.S. stock market pullback does not necessarily signal a peak, technology stock weighting becomes a source of market pressure

BlockBeats news, June 29, Goldman Sachs strategists stated that this week's weakness in US stocks is more of a structural adjustment dragged down by large tech stocks, rather than a clear sign that the entire market has peaked.

As of Friday afternoon's trading last week, the S&P 500 Index might still fall by more than about 1.5% this week. Nevertheless, the macro background facing the market is not entirely negative: oil prices fell about 10% this week, the 10-year US Treasury yield slipped more than 10 basis points to 4.37%, May's core PCE inflation basically met expectations, and Micron's performance also showed that AI-related demand remains resilient.

The real drag on the index comes from large-cap tech stocks. Goldman Sachs noted that the seven major tech stocks generally fell 3% to 8% this week. Due to their excessive market cap weight in the S&P 500, gains among other constituents are difficult to offset the drag. Meanwhile, market breadth has actually improved, with eight out of the 11 major sectors rising this week, and the equal-weight S&P 500 outperforming the market-cap-weighted index so far this year.

This suggests that the market may be shifting from a “few dominant tech giants” scenario to more diversified sector rotation. However, Goldman Sachs also reminds that the AI investment cycle remains one of the top risks investors are focused on. Currently, large Internet companies are shifting from an asset-light model to a capital-intensive model; while the market has rewarded this transition, there is increasing concern about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure.

The report points out that the market has not seen clear signs of a slowdown in AI capital spending, but consensus expectations indicate that capital intensity may peak this year or next. Goldman Sachs also said that current AI investment is already close to, or may even exceed, the tech investment peak of the 1990s.

Goldman Sachs' conclusion is not to exit the market, but to advise investors to continue focusing on assets with upward earning momentum. This round of correction is more like a release of pressure from highly concentrated trading rather than a confirmed signal of the end of the bull market.