Galaxy Research lowers probability of CLARITY Act passing by 2026 to 50%

BlockBeats News, June 29 — According to the latest report from Galaxy Research, the likelihood of the US "CLARITY Act" (Digital Asset Market Structure and Investor Protection Act) being enacted by 2026 has been lowered from 60% three weeks ago to 50%, due to the continued compression of the Senate legislative calendar. The report notes that although the bill passed the Senate Banking Committee review in May and was placed on the Senate legislative agenda, a unified text from the Banking and Agriculture Committees has not yet been formed, nor has a full Senate vote been scheduled.

Galaxy Research states that if the bill aims to complete its review before the August congressional recess, the Senate Majority Leader must schedule a vote by early July at the latest. Otherwise, the legislative process will likely be delayed until September and be affected by political factors related to the midterm elections. Meanwhile, the FY2027 National Defense Authorization Act and other priority items are also continually taking up Senate voting time.

In addition, there are still disagreements on key parts of the bill, including conflict-of-interest clauses and developer protection provisions in the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act (BRCA), which require further bipartisan support. If a unified bill text is released, major disputes resolved, and a July vote is officially scheduled in the coming weeks, the probability of the bill passing could rise back above 60%. However, if there is no substantial progress by mid-July, the probability could decrease further.