Ma Guangyuan: The institutional reform of the Federal Reserve is the biggest black swan for global assets in the coming years

格隆汇 June 26｜Economist Ma Guangyuan stated that gold has retraced nearly 30% from its highest point this year, while silver has been cut in half. The core reason for gold and silver's weakness is not geopolitical circumstances, but Fed Chairman Waller's tough credit restructuring policies, the normalization of high interest rates, and the continued suppression from the strong dollar's siphoning effect. In the long run, if Waller successfully advances balance sheet reduction, rigid implementation of inflation targets, and reforms within the Fed system, it will fully restore the dollar's credit, which has been overdrafted for years due to loose policy, thereby consolidating the dollar's global dominance at its foundation and benefiting the U.S. monetary system and financial structure in the long term. However, for global capital markets, this means the asset pricing logic of all asset classes will be completely restructured. Although U.S. stocks appear to be fluctuating upwards at present, the market is seriously underestimating the far-reaching impact of Waller’s structural reforms. The new era ushered in by Waller's Fed will feature no normalized easing, no market backstops, and no ambiguous games—the underlying pricing logic is being completely rewritten.This institutional change, which goes beyond simple rate hikes or rate cuts, is the biggest black swan for global assets in coming years and the most central theme for pricing.