AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Weakens below 112.00 on intervention fears, bearish bias below 100-day SMA

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 111.70 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as traders are on high for currency intervention from Japanese authorities. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on Tuesday that he will take appropriate action against the foreign exchange moves if needed. 

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday showed that the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.0% YoY in May, compared to a 4.2% increase in April. The market consensus was for 4.4% growth in the reported period. The monthly Consumer Price Index came in at -0.7% in May, versus a 0.4% increase prior, softer than the expectation of a 0.3% decline. 

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY keeps a bearish near-term tone as spot remains capped beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and below the Bollinger middle band. The pair is sliding along the lower side of its recent range, with price holding just above the Bollinger lower band support at 111.54, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 35.8 points to weak momentum and conditions edging toward oversold.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 112.20, followed by the Bollinger middle band at 113.23, with the upper band near 114.91 acting as a more distant cap if a stronger rebound unfolds. On the downside, a clear break below the Bollinger lower band at 111.55 would open the door to further losses, reinforcing the prevailing bearish bias as long as daily closes remain beneath the 100-day SMA.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)