EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests symmetrical triangle bottom near 183.50

EUR/JPY extends its losses for the third successive day, trading around 183.60 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross is extending a corrective phase below the short- and medium-term Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which keeps the near-term bias bearish despite intraday stabilization. The cross is capped by the session Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) near 184.28 and the nine-period EMA around 184.62, while the 50-period EMA higher up at 184.99 reinforces the overhead supply zone.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 36, edging toward oversold territory and hinting that downside momentum may be losing some intensity even as price remains pressured beneath these trend indicators.

The EUR/JPY cross is currently testing the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle around 183.50, a critical inflection point where buyers are attempting to defend support and spark a bounce back toward the upper descending resistance line. However, a failure to hold this level would signal buyer exhaustion, allowing sellers to fully take control of the cross's broader structure.

The intraday dynamics heavily favor the bears, as the price is currently trading below the session VWAP. This positioning gives the average seller the upper hand. If the price attempts to bounce, institutional sellers are highly likely to supply liquidity right at this VWAP level to exit at "fair value," making it a formidable intraday ceiling to break.

When looking at the daily pattern alongside Wednesday's price action, the market appears to be in the middle of a breakdown attempt fueled by aggressive shorting. A confirmed bearish breakdown will trigger if the price stays below the VWAP and breaks the triangle's rising support line on a surge of volume. Conversely, if buyers step in aggressively and reclaim the 184.28 level, it would signal a strong intraday reversal, meaning the dip was likely just a trap to clean out stop-losses. Until the EUR/JPY cross can regain that VWAP level, the immediate bias remains skewed to the downside.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)