Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD hovers above $4,100 amid growing bearish pressure
Gold (XAU/USD) reversed Monday’s gains and resumed the broader bearish trend on Tuesday, testing support at the $4,100 level after failing to extend gains beyond $4,220 on Monday. Higher US Treasury yields amid rising bets on Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes and uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran peace deal continue to weigh on the precious metal, which has depreciated by nearly $250 since the Iran conflict began.
The US Dollar (USD) is one of the stronger performers this week, buoyed by higher Treasury yields, as markets brace for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes later in the year. The CME Group’s Fed Watch Tool shows a 70% chance of a hike in September, up from less than 30% a year ago, and is almost fully pricing at least a quarter-point hike before the end of the year.
Beyond that, investors remain wary of risk due to scepticism about progress in the US-Iran talks. Iranian negotiators said earlier on Tuesday that the technical talks have been completed, with no clear plan to reopen the key Strait of Hormuz and with the critical nuclear issue still in the air. A tense calm in Lebanon is keeping hopes alive, but the risk of derailment is still on the cards.
Technical Analysis: Bears focus on the 2026 low, at $4,023
XAU/USD trades at $4,120, holding a bearish near-term bias, with downside attempts contained above $4,100 so far. Momentum studies in the four-hour chart align with this softer tone, as the Relative Strength Index (14) retreats towards the low-40s while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays below zero, suggesting rallies are likely to meet selling interest into resistance.
Immediate support is at the mentioned $4,100 area, so far closing the path towards the year-to-date lows, at $4,023, and the $4,000 psychological level. Further down, the late October 2025 low, at the $3,885 area, would come into focus.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at Monday's high, just above $4,220. Above that level, bulls are likely to be challenged at the confluence of the descending trendline resistance and the June 17 high, at the $4,370-$4,380 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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