Hungarian Forint: Rate-cut cycle seen restarting – Commerzbank
Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister expects the Hungarian central bank to resume interest rate cuts, with consensus looking for a 25 basis point move. A strong Hungarian Forint and lower-than-expected inflation provide room for easing, leaving real rates high. Markets price roughly three cuts over six months, and today’s decision is not expected to move HUF significantly if further easing stays off the agenda.
Forint strength and low inflation allow easing
"The Hungarian central bank is expected to resume its interest rate cuts today, after such a move was already discussed at last month’s meeting. According to the Bloomberg consensus, a 25-basis-point cut is almost certain, with only one analyst expecting a cut twice that size."
"Hungary has currently even the lowest inflationary pressure among the CE3 countries according to the core HICP. It should be noted that this is despite Hungary having the highest key interest rate."
"The resulting high real interest rate therefore offers sufficient scope for interest rate cuts."
"While the market is now pricing in rate cuts once again (in March, we were sceptical about rate hikes being priced in), it is only anticipating roughly three cuts over the next six months"
"(including today's), with no further cuts expected after that. If price pressures remain this subdued, there may be scope for further cuts. But this is not on the agenda for today's meeting, so the decision is unlikely to trigger any significant movement in the HUF."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
The AI boom may follow the path of the 19th-century railway bubble, and builders may not be the ultimate winners
Goldman Sachs analyst Bobby Molavi compared the current situation to the 19th-century British railway mania: 500 companies spent more than the nation's annual income building 8,000 miles of railway, with most early investors losing out, while the real beneficiaries were the later "passengers." He pointed out that the current AI craze is driven by both debt and momentum, and that the S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio of 18x is only "a bit cheaper." Whether the builders can retain value is uncertain, and history does not offer an optimistic answer.
If Anthropic's IPO goes smoothly and the stock price rises next week, then everything remains the same for AI. Otherwise, some companies will go bankrupt.
The shrinking valuations of two major giants have triggered a chain reaction—investors are adopting more conservative revenue multiples for AI startups and are directly halting high-valuation financing for companies with zero revenue. Multiple venture capital firms have advised their portfolio companies to lower valuation expectations and to quickly build up cash reserves. Market participants warn that the outcome of Anthropic’s IPO will be a barometer for the industry: if successful, the boom will continue; if it fails, some companies may face elimination.
After the Brazilian election, political discount deepens; Morgan Stanley remains bullish on Petrobras (PBR.US), focusing on fuel pricing and dividends
Morgan Stanley still maintains its most optimistic "Overweight" rating, but has lowered its year-end 2027 target price from $31 to $25.
Corning (GLW.US) receives initial "Buy" rating from Jefferies! AI factories driving a fiber optic rush, with a potential global supply gap of up to 30%
For Corning, the recent profit growth mainly comes from the expansion of AI clusters. As the number of optical links crossing cabinets and campuses increases, customers need to deploy more optical fibers within limited conduit and cabinet space, thus driving demand for high-density optical cables and connection systems.
Crypto prices
More
