India's HSBC Manufacturing PMI eases in June: What 54.5 means for the Indian Rupee
The preliminary reading of India's HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) eases to 54.5 in June versus 55.0 prior, the latest data published by S&P Global and HSBC Bank showed on Tuesday.
The India’s Services PMI declined to 57.3 in June from the previous reading of 59.8, while the Composite PMI fell to 57.4 in June versus 59.3 prior.
The preliminary reading of India's HSBC PMI data for June has little to no impact to the Indian Rupee (INR). The USD/INR pair holds positive ground near 94.65, still marginally up from Monday’s closing price at 94.65.
What do India's HSBC PMI data mean for the Indian Rupee?
India's HSBC Manufacturing PMI is a leading indicator gauging business activity in India’s manufacturing sector. The stronger-than-expected figure is seen as bullish on the INR. This report can influence both the Indian Rupee (INR) and expectations for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy, as manufacturing activity provides insights into economic growth and inflation pressures.
Stronger-than-expected PMI readings signal stronger factory activity and economic momentum, reducing expectations for monetary easing, while weaker-than-expected data tends to weigh on the Indian Rupee by raising concerns about growth and increasing the likelihood of a more accommodative RBI stance.
Technical Analysis: USD/INR keeps a positive outlook in the near term
In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 94.6550. The pair retains a constructive near-term tone as it holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 93.5420, keeping the broader uptrend supported despite the recent pullback from late-May highs. Price is also trading above the lower Bollinger Band near 94.16, suggesting that the latest decline is more a consolidation within the existing bullish structure than a full-fledged reversal, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 45 denotes neutral momentum after prior overbought readings cooled.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the Bollinger middle band, the 20-day SMA, at roughly 95.14, where a daily close above would reopen the way toward the upper band near 96.11 as the next bullish target. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the lower Bollinger Band around 94.16, with a break there exposing the 100-day SMA at 93.54; a sustained move below this latter level would significantly weaken the prevailing bullish bias and signal scope for a deeper correction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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