(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold and silver prices are higher after the close Monday, as crude oil fell on renewed U.S.-Iran negotiation headlines while higher Treasury yields and a firmer dollar kept the post-Fed pressure on precious metals. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,190.60 an ounce, up 1.21%, while spot silver was trading near $65.21, up 0.47% on the session.
Post-Fed positioning remains the main restraint on metals. The Federal Reserve’s June meeting left rates unchanged, but markets are still trading the shift away from an easing bias and toward possible later-year hikes. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.50% from 4.46% late Thursday, and traders are pricing nearly a 90% chance of at least one Fed rate hike by year-end, up from 57% a week earlier. That repricing limits gold’s follow-through and keeps silver exposed whenever the dollar and front-end yields firm.
Weekend talks between Washington and Tehran produced what U.S. Vice President JD Vance called a “good foundation for a successful final deal,” while Iran’s military said Saturday it had closed the strait again and U.S. Central Command disputed that claim. The current market impact is disinflationary at the margin but still volatile: Brent fell 3.2% to $77.52, U.S. crude fell 2.6% to $73.86 and equities were mixed, but Treasury yields rose because the inflation shock from the Iran war is still feeding Fed-hike expectations. Gold is benefiting from lower oil and residual geopolitical uncertainty, but not enough to override the rate channel; silver is firmer but remains vulnerable to weaker industrial-risk appetite.
U.S. stocks finished mixed as lower oil supported cyclicals while Big Tech weighed on the broader tape. The S&P 500 fell 27.79 points, or 0.4%, to 7,472.79. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 148.01 points, or 0.3%, to 51,712.71. The Nasdaq Composite fell 351.33 points, or 1.3%, to 26,166.60. The Russell 2000 added 24.64 points, or 0.8%, to 3,004.40.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $73.86 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $77.52. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.5% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,221 to $4,226 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,287 and then $4,364. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,160, with deeper downside targets at $4,073 and then $4,000. First resistance is seen at $4,221 and then at $4,287. First support is seen at $4,160 and then at $4,073.
Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $66.99 to $69.02 resistance zone, with a move above that zone targeting $71.49 and then $72.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $64.53, with deeper downside targets at $62.92 and then $60.00. First resistance is seen at $66.99 and then at $69.02. Next support is seen at $64.53 and then at $62.92.
