Prediction Market Open Interest Hits Record $1.48 Billion as Sports Bets Climb

BeInCrypto2026/06/22 09:00

By:BeInCrypto

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold. Trade now!

A welcome pack worth 6200 USDT for new users! Sign up now!

Prediction market open interest climbed to a record $1.48 billion in the week ending June 15, roughly a sixfold increase over the past year. Open interest was not the only milestone. Notional volume, weekly fees, and active users all hit new highs as the FIFA World Cup pushed sports betting sharply higher. Prediction Markets Notch All-Time High With Sixfold Open Interest Surge According to a16z crypto, it was the second consecutive weekly peak. Kalshi and Polymarket account for most of the figure. Smaller venues such as Opinion, Limitless, and Myriad trail well behind. The post explained that, unlike trading volume, which measures daily churn, open interest tracks the capital that participants keep deployed and at risk. The sustained climb shows traders holding longer-term positions across politics, economics, culture, and crypto. The recent surge represents a roughly sixfold increase over the past year, highlighting how users are maintaining longer-term financial positions and how prediction markets are maturing into durable market infrastructure, a16z wrote. Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens Prediction Market Open Interest. Sports Event Contracts Fuel the Climb The growth extended beyond open interest. Dune data showed weekly fees reached a record $76.8 million, while active users climbed to an all-time high of 426,975. Sports became the dominant force behind the latest surge. Total notional volume across prediction markets hit a record $12.2 billion during the week. Notably, sports-related markets account for $5.8 billion, nearly half of the total. The segment was the largest volume driver on both Polymarket and Kalshi. Prediction Market Notional Volume. The ongoing 2026 FIFA World Cup has played a key role in attracting new participants to these platforms. Betting activity has intensified significantly, with some users placing seven-figure wagers on individual matches. In one notable case, a trader reportedly generated $9.24 million in profits in a single day.

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

Understand the market, then trade.

Bitget offers one-stop trading for cryptocurrencies, stocks, and gold.

Trade now！

Goldman Sachs analyst Bobby Molavi compared the current situation to the 19th-century British railway mania: 500 companies spent more than the nation's annual income building 8,000 miles of railway, with most early investors losing out, while the real beneficiaries were the later "passengers." He pointed out that the current AI craze is driven by both debt and momentum, and that the S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio of 18x is only "a bit cheaper." Whether the builders can retain value is uncertain, and history does not offer an optimistic answer.

华尔街见闻•2026/11/12 03:56

The AI boom may follow the path of the 19th-century railway bubble, and builders may not be the ultimate winners

If Anthropic's IPO goes smoothly and the stock price rises next week, then everything remains the same for AI. Otherwise, some companies will go bankrupt.

The shrinking valuations of two major giants have triggered a chain reaction—investors are adopting more conservative revenue multiples for AI startups and are directly halting high-valuation financing for companies with zero revenue. Multiple venture capital firms have advised their portfolio companies to lower valuation expectations and to quickly build up cash reserves. Market participants warn that the outcome of Anthropic’s IPO will be a barometer for the industry: if successful, the boom will continue; if it fails, some companies may face elimination.

华尔街见闻•2026/11/12 03:46

After the Brazilian election, political discount deepens; Morgan Stanley remains bullish on Petrobras (PBR.US), focusing on fuel pricing and dividends

Morgan Stanley still maintains its most optimistic "Overweight" rating, but has lowered its year-end 2027 target price from $31 to $25.

智通财经•2026/11/12 03:42

After the Brazilian election, political discount deepens; Morgan Stanley remains bullish on Petrobras (PBR.US), focusing on fuel pricing and dividends

Corning (GLW.US) receives initial "Buy" rating from Jefferies! AI factories driving a fiber optic rush, with a potential global supply gap of up to 30%

For Corning, the recent profit growth mainly comes from the expansion of AI clusters. As the number of optical links crossing cabinets and campuses increases, customers need to deploy more optical fibers within limited conduit and cabinet space, thus driving demand for high-density optical cables and connection systems.

智通财经•2026/11/12 02:47