US economy accounts for over half of global credit impulse, driven by AI spending spree

For years, when analysts talked about who was pumping credit into the global economy, the answer was almost always China. That era appears to be over.

The United States now accounts for more than half of the entire world’s credit impulse, according to a UBS analysis. The country has injected approximately $800 billion in net new credit over the past year, a figure that works out to about 2.6% of US GDP. The engine behind this surge isn’t housing or consumer spending. It’s artificial intelligence.

The numbers behind the shift

The global credit impulse, a measure of how much new credit is flowing through the economy relative to GDP, currently sits at roughly +1.3% of world GDP. Developed markets are running a credit impulse of +2.2% of GDP. Emerging markets, by contrast, are essentially flat, showing no meaningful growth or outright weakness in credit expansion.

Within the developed world, the US is the clear heavyweight. Japan’s credit impulse is accelerating too, but America remains the dominant contributor by a wide margin.

Here’s what makes this cycle unusual: the credit expansion is being driven primarily by loan growth rather than new bond issuance. In English: banks are lending more money to corporations, rather than companies raising funds by selling bonds in capital markets. That distinction matters because bank lending tends to be more sensitive to changes in economic conditions and regulatory environments.

AI is the credit cycle now

The UBS analysis makes a direct connection between this credit boom and capital expenditure related to artificial intelligence. Hyperscalers, the massive cloud computing companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, are pouring money into AI infrastructure at a pace that has become a macroeconomic force.

When companies spend billions building data centers, that money flows through the economy in ways that touch construction, energy, semiconductor manufacturing, and corporate lending. AI funding has become so intertwined with overall economic demand that UBS essentially treats it as the backbone of the current credit cycle.

The flip side of that concentration is risk. If AI spending is the main reason the US is generating more than half the world’s new credit, then anything that disrupts AI investment could have outsized consequences. Concerns about returns on AI investments, tighter lending standards, or a shift in corporate sentiment could all slow the flow.

What this means for investors

The immediate takeaway is that US exceptionalism in financial markets has a concrete foundation: the country is generating more than half the world’s new credit, and that credit is funding real infrastructure.

The risk scenario is equally clear. If lending conditions tighten, whether because of regulatory changes, rising default concerns, or simply banks pulling back, the impact wouldn’t be limited to tech stocks. A credit impulse this concentrated means a slowdown in AI-related lending could drag down broader equity valuations and dampen economic growth across multiple sectors.

For crypto markets specifically, UBS drew no direct connections between this credit analysis and digital assets.

Japan’s accelerating credit impulse provides some diversification, but not nearly enough to offset a meaningful US slowdown. Investors should watch corporate loan growth data closely in the coming quarters. If bank lending to AI-related projects begins to plateau or decline, it could be the early signal of a broader economic deceleration that reverberates through global markets.