Regarding lithium carbonate, pay attention to where the upper limit is.
Over a month ago, I published an article stating, “If the predictions from UBS, CITIC, and Goldman Sachs are all correct, the price of lithium carbonate will rise to 250,000 RMB/ton in June 2026, and then begin to fall. Therefore, it is perfectly reasonable and normal for lithium mining stock prices to fall two months in advance.” Over the past month, the price of lithium carbonate has not risen as predicted by UBS, CITIC, and Goldman Sachs, but has instead declined continuously. Naturally, the stock prices have also fallen.
On June 5, the lithium carbonate contract price rebounded briefly, which drove a rebound in related stocks. Someone asked me: “Do lithium mining stocks still have a chance in the second half of the year?” My response was: “No, even if there is a rebound, it is just a chance to exit.”
On June 18, the Jiangxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources issued a preliminary land approval and site selection administrative permit, allowing the reopening of the Yifeng County Zhenkouli–Fengxin County Jianxiawo lithium mine in Jiangxi Province (previously ceased production on August 9, 2025, due to mining license expiration). This permit is effective from June 17, 2026, until June 17, 2029. Some media outlets reported that the mine is preparing for small-scale resumption of production in Q4.
The resumption of this mine’s production will undoubtedly lead to an increase in lithium carbonate supply. As a result, on June 18, the lithium carbonate 2609 contract plummeted by 6.58%, and the lithium index dropped by 2.95%. Today (the morning of June 22), declines continued, with lithium carbonate 2609 falling nearly 9% at one point, and the lithium index dropping close to 5%.
Figure 1 Lithium carbonate 2609 contract candlestick chart
In fact, investing in these types of stocks requires an understanding of company intent. In my book, I used lithium carbonate as an example to illustrate how overcapacity is created.p.334-335Screenshot as follows:
Pay attention to the underlined section in the screenshot. Once you understand this principle, you should be cautious when the price of lithium carbonate approaches 200,000 RMB/ton in the future.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
The AI boom may follow the path of the 19th-century railway bubble, and builders may not be the ultimate winners
Goldman Sachs analyst Bobby Molavi compared the current situation to the 19th-century British railway mania: 500 companies spent more than the nation's annual income building 8,000 miles of railway, with most early investors losing out, while the real beneficiaries were the later "passengers." He pointed out that the current AI craze is driven by both debt and momentum, and that the S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio of 18x is only "a bit cheaper." Whether the builders can retain value is uncertain, and history does not offer an optimistic answer.
If Anthropic's IPO goes smoothly and the stock price rises next week, then everything remains the same for AI. Otherwise, some companies will go bankrupt.
The shrinking valuations of two major giants have triggered a chain reaction—investors are adopting more conservative revenue multiples for AI startups and are directly halting high-valuation financing for companies with zero revenue. Multiple venture capital firms have advised their portfolio companies to lower valuation expectations and to quickly build up cash reserves. Market participants warn that the outcome of Anthropic’s IPO will be a barometer for the industry: if successful, the boom will continue; if it fails, some companies may face elimination.
After the Brazilian election, political discount deepens; Morgan Stanley remains bullish on Petrobras (PBR.US), focusing on fuel pricing and dividends
Morgan Stanley still maintains its most optimistic "Overweight" rating, but has lowered its year-end 2027 target price from $31 to $25.
Corning (GLW.US) receives initial "Buy" rating from Jefferies! AI factories driving a fiber optic rush, with a potential global supply gap of up to 30%
For Corning, the recent profit growth mainly comes from the expansion of AI clusters. As the number of optical links crossing cabinets and campuses increases, customers need to deploy more optical fibers within limited conduit and cabinet space, thus driving demand for high-density optical cables and connection systems.
Crypto prices
More
