AUD/USD Price Forecast: Extends the range play around 0.7000; bearish bias remains
The AUD/USD pair extends its sideways consolidative price move for the third consecutive day and trades just above the 0.7000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday.
The global risk sentiment takes a hit in reaction to fresh geopolitical developments over the weekend and renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. This, along with the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish tilt, helps the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) stall its modest pullback from the highest level since May 2025, touched on Friday, which is seen acting as a headwind for the AUD/USD pair.
That said, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) signal that additional rate hikes were possible if inflation persists limits the downside for the Australian Dollar (AUD). From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair has been showing resilience below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the March-May upswing, warranting some caution for bearish traders and positioning for any further losses.
However, the recent breakdown below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the March-May upswing backs the case for a further near-term depreciation. Moreover, momentum oscillators suggest persistent downside pressure, despite the AUD/USD pair stabilising above a key Fibonacci support. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 37.
Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers slightly below zero with a negative line. That said, it will still be prudent to wait for acceptance below the 61.8% Fibo. before positioning for further losses to the 78.6% level around 0.6928 and the prior swing base near 0.6832.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement at 0.7055, followed by the 100-day SMA clustered near 0.7085. A sustained strength above there would expose the 38.2% retracement at 0.7108 and the 23.6% level at 0.7173 as subsequent barriers.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
AUD/USD daily chart
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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