The US-Iran memorandum of understanding takes effect, driving chemical reconstruction and linkage; the Indonesian market leads gains while Thailand consolidates — W25 Overseas Macro Insights
- The United States and Iran have confirmed that the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding" has officially come into effect. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen to navigation, releasing $300 billion in reconstruction demand. The central oil cost is expected to move lower, chemical sector profitability is set for recovery, and the shipping and discretionary consumption industries will indirectly benefit.
- The Central Bank of Indonesia has raised interest rates twice consecutively over the past two weeks, reaching 5.75%, with a cumulative increase of 100 basis points this year. The goal is to stabilize the exchange rate and attract foreign capital. The stock market has risen by 10.4%, while communication, energy, and raw materials sectors are leading the decline. Thailand is consolidating at a high level; energy stocks fell along with oil prices, but macroeconomic improvements led to upgrades in GDP and export forecasts, with utilities and industrial sectors leading the gains and energy sector leading the declines.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
The AI boom may follow the path of the 19th-century railway bubble, and builders may not be the ultimate winners
Goldman Sachs analyst Bobby Molavi compared the current situation to the 19th-century British railway mania: 500 companies spent more than the nation's annual income building 8,000 miles of railway, with most early investors losing out, while the real beneficiaries were the later "passengers." He pointed out that the current AI craze is driven by both debt and momentum, and that the S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio of 18x is only "a bit cheaper." Whether the builders can retain value is uncertain, and history does not offer an optimistic answer.
If Anthropic's IPO goes smoothly and the stock price rises next week, then everything remains the same for AI. Otherwise, some companies will go bankrupt.
The shrinking valuations of two major giants have triggered a chain reaction—investors are adopting more conservative revenue multiples for AI startups and are directly halting high-valuation financing for companies with zero revenue. Multiple venture capital firms have advised their portfolio companies to lower valuation expectations and to quickly build up cash reserves. Market participants warn that the outcome of Anthropic’s IPO will be a barometer for the industry: if successful, the boom will continue; if it fails, some companies may face elimination.
After the Brazilian election, political discount deepens; Morgan Stanley remains bullish on Petrobras (PBR.US), focusing on fuel pricing and dividends
Morgan Stanley still maintains its most optimistic "Overweight" rating, but has lowered its year-end 2027 target price from $31 to $25.
Corning (GLW.US) receives initial "Buy" rating from Jefferies! AI factories driving a fiber optic rush, with a potential global supply gap of up to 30%
For Corning, the recent profit growth mainly comes from the expansion of AI clusters. As the number of optical links crossing cabinets and campuses increases, customers need to deploy more optical fibers within limited conduit and cabinet space, thus driving demand for high-density optical cables and connection systems.
Crypto prices
More
