thecryptobasic.com 
A well-known market analyst recently suggested that $XRP may currently be following the same pattern that led to its monumental surge from $0.5 in November 2024 to $3.4 in January 2025.
$XRP has continued to face significant selling pressure since the ongoing downtrend began in Q4 2025, with prices now dropping to the lower end of the $1 region. The altcoin is now down 68% from its $3.6 peak in July 2025.
Most recently, $XRP crashed below the support range around $1.27 to $1.31 on June 1 and has since flipped this support to resistance, unable to reclaim it, as it trades for $1.13.
$XRP Following 2024 Pattern?
However, Tom, a well-known market watcher, has recently suggested that this prevailing downtrend may actually be part of a larger script that could lead to substantial gains. According to him, $XRP is following the same price action pattern that preceded its late-2024 upsurge.
He disclosed this in an analysis on X, presenting chart data as proof of his findings. Interestingly, when the market commentator identified $XRP’s price action from March 2024 and overlaid it with the current price movements, both fractals aligned almost perfectly.
$XRP’s 2024 Struggles and Sudden Upsurge
For context, $XRP faced similar struggles in 2024, dropping from a local top of $0.745 in mid-March 2024 to a floor of $0.42 by April of that year before finding support. After this, $XRP continued to struggle between $0.40 and $0.50, occasionally dropping to $0.38 before recovering.
This bearish consolidation trend persisted throughout 2024 despite a few occasional spikes above $0.60. However, by November 2024, $XRP witnessed a sudden upward thrust from the $0.5 level on the back of Donald Trump’s victory in the last U.S. presidential election.
From the $0.5 level, $XRP first rallied to $1.26 on Nov. 16, 2024, breaching the $1 mark for the first time in more than three years. From here, it soared to $1.63 in late November and then to $2.9 by Dec. 3, 2024. The rally faced a roadblock here before resuming to $3.4 in January 2025.
Is a Similar Trend Playing Out?
Data from Tom’s chart overlay suggests that a similar trend could actually be playing out. Like in early 2024, $XRP crashed from a high of $2.41 in January 2026, dropping to a floor of $1.1 by early February before recovering.
$XRP is forming a similar pattern to the 2024 run that took us from $0.50 to $3.30 👀
Except… this time the 1.272 Fib extension points to $8.42 🎯‼️ https://t.co/60Vwj5uTCr pic.twitter.com/gfnYHLgT47
— Tom (@Tom0nChain) June 18, 2026
However, despite the rebound push, $XRP failed to recover its previous highs, facing firm resistance around the $1.6 mark. The crypto asset witnessed a bearish consolidation spell between $1.2 and $1.4 from February to May, but eventually crashed to $1.05 in early June. This was similar to the slump to $0.38 by July 2024.
Notably, $XRP recovered from this July 2024 low, and Tom’s chart overlay suggests a similar rebound could occur even as the asset currently trades for $1.13. If the historical pattern plays out, $XRP could rebound toward the $1.4 to $1.6 zone and consolidate here for a few months before eventually breaking out.
Potential $XRP Price Target and Important Caveats
Interestingly, the chart posits that $XRP could eventually rally into price discovery after it breaks out of the consolidation, pushing above the $7 price level before facing resistance and pulling back. After that, a milder surge to $8.1 could ensue. This ultimate target would represent a 616% rise from current prices.
In addition, most traders insist that the 2024 upsurge was mainly driven by Donald Trump’s election victory, and not $XRP’s unique technical strength. As a result, they suggest that if a similar bullish development does not occur, $XRP may not repeat the rally.
