Bitcoin taps $63K on Juneteenth as July Fed rate-hike odds near 40%
Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $63,000 on Friday as markets adjusted to geopolitical and macro changes.
Key points:
- Bitcoin takes a time-out near week-to-date lows after a broadly hawkish Fed interest-rate meeting.
- US-Iran tensions slowly resurface with the Strait of Hormuz oil route in the firing line.
- A trader suggests that a "black swan" event could still come in this Bitcoin bear market.
BTC price lack upside momentum after hawkish Fed cues
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD locked in a tight trading range on low time frames after dropping to eight-day lows.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Weakness had entered after the US Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate decision, which sparked a broader risk-asset comedown.
Wednesday’s meeting on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was the first for new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, who avoided giving traders dovish signals on future policy.
“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy,” he said in a statement after a unanimous board decision to keep rates at current levels.
“The Committee will deliver price stability.”
Warsh’s tone was unusual, as expectations had seen him being accommodating to US President Donald Trump’s insistence on rate cuts. He also cut the FOMC statement length considerably, using drier language than former chair, Jerome Powell.
“We will have far less information going forward,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter reacted, noting that Warsh had also “dropped” its forward guidance.
“He even hinted that the 'dot plot' could be changed or eliminated along with all forms of Fed communication, such as the policy statement and press conferences. In other words, the market will now have less Fed outlook which means more uncertainty.”
Fed target rate probabilities for July 29 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets pricing in a near 40% chance of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in late July.
Bitcoin "black swan" back on the radar
With US markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday, meanwhile, Bitcoin and crypto were alone in digesting the latest developments in the US-Iran war.
Despite signing a memorandum of understanding (MoU), the two sides appeared far from aligned on the future road map, with Iran once more eyeing the newly reopened Strait of Hormuz oil route.
Citing Bloomberg, Kobeissi reported that traffic “cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz without its permission.”
“The MoU signed with the US only says that transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be free for the duration of its 60 day term,” it explained on Friday.
“It appears Iran is preparing for long-term control of Hormuz.”
CFDs on WTI crude oil one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
WTI crude oil continued to circle $75 per barrel on the day after hitting its lowest levels since early March.
Amid the lull in risk-asset volatility, trader and analyst Rekt Capital hinted that Bitcoin bulls’ true test is yet to come.
“There tends to be a Black Swan event in the second half of Bitcoin Bear Markets. Lesson there,” he told X followers.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
The AI boom may follow the path of the 19th-century railway bubble, and builders may not be the ultimate winners
Goldman Sachs analyst Bobby Molavi compared the current situation to the 19th-century British railway mania: 500 companies spent more than the nation's annual income building 8,000 miles of railway, with most early investors losing out, while the real beneficiaries were the later "passengers." He pointed out that the current AI craze is driven by both debt and momentum, and that the S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio of 18x is only "a bit cheaper." Whether the builders can retain value is uncertain, and history does not offer an optimistic answer.
If Anthropic's IPO goes smoothly and the stock price rises next week, then everything remains the same for AI. Otherwise, some companies will go bankrupt.
The shrinking valuations of two major giants have triggered a chain reaction—investors are adopting more conservative revenue multiples for AI startups and are directly halting high-valuation financing for companies with zero revenue. Multiple venture capital firms have advised their portfolio companies to lower valuation expectations and to quickly build up cash reserves. Market participants warn that the outcome of Anthropic’s IPO will be a barometer for the industry: if successful, the boom will continue; if it fails, some companies may face elimination.
After the Brazilian election, political discount deepens; Morgan Stanley remains bullish on Petrobras (PBR.US), focusing on fuel pricing and dividends
Morgan Stanley still maintains its most optimistic "Overweight" rating, but has lowered its year-end 2027 target price from $31 to $25.
Corning (GLW.US) receives initial "Buy" rating from Jefferies! AI factories driving a fiber optic rush, with a potential global supply gap of up to 30%
For Corning, the recent profit growth mainly comes from the expansion of AI clusters. As the number of optical links crossing cabinets and campuses increases, customers need to deploy more optical fibers within limited conduit and cabinet space, thus driving demand for high-density optical cables and connection systems.
Crypto prices
More
