Top Analyst Presents 3 Major Historical References for XRP Price Rally

XRP has spent years compressing inside a large symmetrical triangle on the two-week chart. Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) published a detailed thread walking through what this structure means for the current cycle.

The analysis covers three historical reference points, a tiered probability map, and specific price targets that stretch from conservative to extreme.

The analyst introduced the setup by referencing what he calls the “big yellow triangle.” He identified three major historical pumps originating from the lower end of the structure: a first-cycle move of around 8,000%, a previous-cycle move of around 1,900%, and a projected 909% conservative move. The central question he poses is whether XRP is repeating that historical behavior.

#XRP – The Big Yellow Triangle & The Probability Map ( $6.5, $13 and $60) 🎲

This chart is not about daily noise.

It is about the big yellow triangle, the historical pumps from the lower end of the structure, and what probability says about the next projected cycle top.

We… pic.twitter.com/UCRJSmMZG6

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) June 17, 2026

The Three Scenarios

EGRAG CRYPTO started with the most aggressive case. He traces the first major move inside the macro triangle at around 8,000% and applies it to the current cycle base. That projection puts XRP at approximately $60. He is clear about the weight of this scenario, calling it the full “face-melting” probability.

The second scenario draws from the previous cycle. The analyst noted that XRP delivered around 1,900% from the lower structure during that period. Applying the same percentage to the current projected base produces a target of approximately $13. He described this as more realistic because it reflects a maturing market.

The third scenario uses the most conservative projection at around 909%. EGRAG CRYPTO placed this target near the Fibonacci expansion region, arriving at approximately $6.50. He described this as a reasonable target. However, he acknowledged it would disappoint those looking for double digits.

Are these Targets Feasible?

The analyst then laid out a full probability ladder. The conservative macro impulse at around 909% covers a range of around $6.50 to $9.27+. The previous-cycle style impulse at around 1,900% targets $13. Strong Fibonacci expansion at the 1.414 to 1.618 levels reaches $15.36 to $31.75. The first-cycle style impulse at around 8,000% targets $60. He stated clearly that “the higher we go, the lower the probability.”

Structure Before Targets

The analyst outlined six conditions XRP must meet before any of these targets activate. XRP must hold the lower triangle structure, avoid losing major macro support, break out of the triangle, reclaim the Fibonacci ladder, hold above old resistance as support, and enter expansion with volume. Without a confirmed breakout, he treats the numbers as projections only.

He concluded that $13 is “the most balanced macro probability” if XRP repeats previous-cycle behavior. He placed $31.75 as possible if the full Fibonacci extension activates.