Analysis: The continued flattening of the US Treasury yield curve releases a hawkish signal, which may suppress the short-term rebound space for bitcoin.

Odaily reports that the bond market is sending more hawkish interest rate signals, which may continue to suppress risk assets such as Bitcoin. Currently, the yield spread between the US 2-year and 10-year government bonds has narrowed to about 28 basis points, reaching its flattest level since April 2025, indicating a significantly flattened yield curve. This change is typically seen as a sign of tighter monetary policy or heightened market expectations of “higher rates for longer.”

Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of the policy research institution EmployAmerica, pointed out that this flattening trend is “one of the clearest market signals that the Federal Reserve has become more hawkish.” In a more hawkish rate environment, the market expects interest rates to remain high for a longer period, thereby increasing the appeal of fixed-income assets and weakening the allocation demand for non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin.

Besides the 10-year and 2-year yield spread, the 30-year and 5-year government bond yield spread has also fallen to its lowest level since April last year, further reinforcing the overall flattening trend of the yield curve.

Market participants believe this change forms a clear reversal from the “steepening curve and betting on rate cuts” environment seen at the start of this year. In the latest round of policy signals, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged, but its dot plot showed a more upward trajectory for future rates than previously forecast, with the median rate expectation shifting higher overall—reinforcing expectations of “higher rates for longer.”

Analysis suggests that if the high-interest-rate environment persists, it may be difficult for risk assets such as Bitcoin to form a strong upward trend in the short term. The market may enter a phase of volatile pressure, overlapping with some halving cycle-based bottom timing expectations. (CoinDesk)