The Group of Seven countries have agreed that no single country should supply more than 60% of their imports of rare earths by 2030 in an effort to reduce their reliance on China, according to people familiar with the discussions.
At their summit in Evian, France, this week, G7 leaders discussed plans to introduce binding quotas for companies in some industrial sectors, in what appeared to be a nod to the need for defense manufacturers in particular to reduce their reliance on China, one of the people said. They also pledged to set up a platform to combine efforts to increase the supply from recycling and new mining projects, said the person, who asked not to be named discussing private conversations.
For other critical minerals, leaders pledged to nail down specific targets by the end of the year.
One G7 official said the critical minerals plan was one issue the leaders could fully agree on at a meeting dominated by questions surrounding the peace deal between the US and Iran. Another official said that the members were all aligned on the need to diversify their suppliers of critical minerals so that they would be less vulnerable to interruptions.
“We agreed in various formats to work even more closely together on critical raw materials,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told reporters in Evian. “We had very in-depth discussions with our guests about how we can diversify.”
The 2030 deadline is likely to prove an ambitious target, given that many prospective developers are delaying projects in the face of funding constraints, regulatory hurdles, social opposition and technical setbacks. One of the official said it’s unlikely that countries will deliver without setting quotas at least for some industries, like defense.
China imposed sweeping export controls on most critical minerals and rare earths last year which threatened to halt manufacturing lines around the world and underlined for officials the leverage Beijing has accrued through its near-monopoly on supplies.
Chinese Export Controls
China also hit Japan with a wide-ranging ban on products that can be used in either civilian or military equipment following a spat over Taiwan this year.
The need to diversify away from China is a familiar one for Japan, which was hit with an export ban of critical minerals back in 2010 following a maritime border dispute. That sparked a long effort by Japan to try to reduce its reliance on China for rare earths, but it still sources around 75% of its imports from its neighbor.
While most critical minerals markets are small and individual projects can deliver a major supply boost to global supplies, vast amounts of capital and technical expertise would be needed to ramp up output in all of the critical-minerals markets that China dominates.
What’s more, rare-earth mining and refining are environmentally damaging, costly, and time-consuming activities, so building alternative supply chains could take many years.
A 2025 International Energy Agency report found that China controlled roughly 70% of the market for refining processes for the majority of critical minerals. For some specific substances, China’s dominance is even higher. It produces 85% of processed cobalt and 99% of primary gallium, the report said.
