Aluminum prices rebound by 1.1% to $3,424 as dip-buying emerges, but geopolitical risk premium remains

⑴ The three-month aluminum contract on the London Metal Exchange rose by 1.1% to $3,424 per ton on Wednesday. The previous trading day saw the contract hit a near two-and-a-half-month low of $3,334 per ton, affected by news of the US-Iran peace agreement. ⑵ Earlier, the Middle East conflict forced several smelters in the Gulf region to cut production and disrupted shipping; this area accounts for about 9% of global aluminum capacity, driving aluminum prices to their highest level in nearly four years at the beginning of this month. ⑶ Analysts attribute Wednesday’s rebound to bargain buying, as some investors believe the peace agreement may not proceed as smoothly as expected and more uncertainties are brewing; Israel has indicated its distance from the latest US-Iran deal. ⑷ The discount of the spot aluminum contract to the three-month futures narrowed from $16.50 per ton on Tuesday to about $4 per ton. Previously, this price difference mostly maintained a spot premium structure, only reversing late last week. ⑸ LME registered warehouse aluminum inventories have dropped to 316,525 tons, the lowest level since September 2022. Continually low inventory levels may provide certain support for the price floor.