Dutch natural gas slips slightly to 41.58 euros as the market weighs the prospects of the US-Iran agreement and the impact of the heatwave

⑴ On Wednesday, European benchmark Dutch TTF natural gas prices edged lower, with the near-month contract falling by 0.189 euros to 41.58 euros per megawatt-hour. The UK near-month contract similarly declined by 0.78 pence to 98.62 pence per therm. ⑵ The market continues to assess the impact of the preliminary US-Iran agreement, which involves the US ending its blockade of Iranian ports and Iran restoring oil, gas, and shipping passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Previously, the strait had been effectively blocked since February 28 due to attacks launched by the US and Israel. ⑶ Northwestern Europe is expected to experience a heatwave, with average temperatures rising and peaking over the weekend. Wind power output is expected to decrease into next week, but photovoltaic electricity generation will increase. The completion of maintenance at Norwegian gas and oil fields has driven an increase in Norwegian export nominations by 10 million cubic meters per day to 307 million cubic meters per day. ⑷ On the supply side, the European carbon market benchmark contract rose by 0.92 euros to 80.77 euros per ton, reflecting continued strong sentiment in energy-related carbon allowance trading. Attention remains on how temperature changes will impact cooling demand and gas-fired electricity peak regulation.