International Energy Agency: Significant oil market surplus expected in 2027 as Strait of Hormuz gradually recovers
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- In its monthly oil market report released on Wednesday, the International Energy Agency stated that the global oil market will gradually recover from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and will then shift to significant surplus by 2027.
- The United States and Iran have reached an agreement to end a three-month conflict, including Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and the US lifting its maritime blockade. This could put an end to what is estimated by the International Energy Agency as the largest oil supply disruption in history (with the interruption reducing Middle East oil production by over 14 million barrels per day).
- The agency stated: “If the agreement holds, exports and production in the Gulf region should gradually recover—especially after the US blockade is lifted, allowing full restoration of Iran's oil exports.” In its first outlook for 2027, the International Energy Agency pointed out that the oil market will then move into a state of significant supply surplus, with global oil supply surging by 8 million barrels per day, while demand will grow by only 2 million barrels per day.
- The International Energy Agency stated: “This may provide the market with a respite, creating an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories or establish new strategic reserves, giving countries a chance to reassess their energy strategies and policies for responding to crises.”
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