The market narrative shifts from "war hedging" to "inflation hedging," while spot gold prices continue to fluctuate.
On the news front, the US and Iran have announced that they have reached a memorandum of understanding on a ceasefire, with the official signing ceremony scheduled for the 19th in Switzerland. On June 15, stimulated by the US-Iran peace agreement, safe-haven assets such as gold soared sharply, surpassing $4,300. Traditionally, geopolitical easing implies pressure on safe-haven assets, but this time gold's performance has completely upended this pattern.
Institutions generally believe that the market is shifting from a “war risk aversion” narrative to an “inflation risk aversion” framework. The ceasefire agreement does not mean that the dollar system has repaired the "deep cracks" exposed during this conflict. The protracted Middle East conflict indicates that the US’s dominance in the Hormuz Strait energy order has been challenged. Previously, market concerns over the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes were based on the assumption of persistently higher-than-expected inflation. The reopening of the Hormuz Strait implies weaker inflation expectations, and the space for a shift in Federal Reserve policy is expected to reopen, thereby easing the upward pressure on real US Treasury yields. Considering both the growth and inflation cycle, gold remains a high-quality portfolio hedging tool, and its asset stability still stands out. When market concerns about currency depreciation, expanding fiscal deficits, and high global debt levels heat up, gold's hedging attribute continues to stand out. Such medium- to long-term macro contradictions are difficult to resolve in the short term, which will support a gradual upward movement in gold prices.
Editor: Zhu Henan
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
The AI boom may follow the path of the 19th-century railway bubble, and builders may not be the ultimate winners
Goldman Sachs analyst Bobby Molavi compared the current situation to the 19th-century British railway mania: 500 companies spent more than the nation's annual income building 8,000 miles of railway, with most early investors losing out, while the real beneficiaries were the later "passengers." He pointed out that the current AI craze is driven by both debt and momentum, and that the S&P 500’s forward P/E ratio of 18x is only "a bit cheaper." Whether the builders can retain value is uncertain, and history does not offer an optimistic answer.
If Anthropic's IPO goes smoothly and the stock price rises next week, then everything remains the same for AI. Otherwise, some companies will go bankrupt.
The shrinking valuations of two major giants have triggered a chain reaction—investors are adopting more conservative revenue multiples for AI startups and are directly halting high-valuation financing for companies with zero revenue. Multiple venture capital firms have advised their portfolio companies to lower valuation expectations and to quickly build up cash reserves. Market participants warn that the outcome of Anthropic’s IPO will be a barometer for the industry: if successful, the boom will continue; if it fails, some companies may face elimination.
After the Brazilian election, political discount deepens; Morgan Stanley remains bullish on Petrobras (PBR.US), focusing on fuel pricing and dividends
Morgan Stanley still maintains its most optimistic "Overweight" rating, but has lowered its year-end 2027 target price from $31 to $25.
Corning (GLW.US) receives initial "Buy" rating from Jefferies! AI factories driving a fiber optic rush, with a potential global supply gap of up to 30%
For Corning, the recent profit growth mainly comes from the expansion of AI clusters. As the number of optical links crossing cabinets and campuses increases, customers need to deploy more optical fibers within limited conduit and cabinet space, thus driving demand for high-density optical cables and connection systems.
Crypto prices
More
