Everbright Futures 0615 Hotspot Tracking: Easing US-Iran Tensions, Silver Price Surges Over 7%

　　After the market opened on Monday, boosted by the easing of US-Iran tensions, risk appetite returned to the market with Shanghai Silver surging rapidly and then maintaining high volatility, with intraday gains exceeding 8%. In terms of news, US President Trump posted on social media on the 14th stating that the US-Iran agreement is "now completed" and the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. According to Iranian media reports on the 15th, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council issued a statement in the early hours, officially confirming that a memorandum of understanding on a ceasefire between Iran and the US had been reached. The official signing ceremony for the Iran-US memorandum will be held in Switzerland on the 19th, and after Iran verifies the US fulfills its commitments, 60 days of negotiations will commence. Following last week's escalation, a breakthrough has been achieved in the short term, and with the boost in market sentiment, silver prices are likely to run strong in the short term.

　　Looking ahead, the Bank of Japan will hold its monetary policy meeting on June 15-16. Currently, the market's expectation for a rate hike is as high as 88%, with projections that the BoJ will raise its policy rate from 0.75% to 1.00%. This would mark the highest rate in nearly 31 years for Japan and represents a key step in the BoJ’s continued tightening of monetary policy after exiting negative rates. If the rate hike triggers a reversal in carry trades, one should be alert to the risk of a pullback in Silver due to tightening liquidity expectations. In addition, the Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision and quarterly economic projections at 2 a.m. on Thursday. The market generally expects rates to remain unchanged at 3.50%—3.75%, but the dot plot revisions and the remarks of the new chair are the true guiding factors. If the policy statement's phrasing for "next step favors easing" is removed, it would signify a shift in the Fed's policy stance away from the 2024 easing cycle, which would also weigh on silver prices. Caution is needed regarding the sustainability of today's silver price rebound.

　　Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute

　　Written by: Shi Yueming

　　Professional Qualification: F03097365

　　Trading Advisory Qualification: Z0017563

Editor: Zhu Henan