Bitwise's Dragosch sees up to 20% further downside for bitcoin, puts 'max pain' scenario at $48,000

Bitcoin (BTC) faces as much as 20% additional downside from current levels, according to Bitwise Head of Research Europe André Dragosch.

In an interview with The Block's Gareth Jenkinson at BTC Prague on Thursday, Dragosch pointed to a cluster of structural supports forming beneath the asset’s spot price, including the 200-week moving average at roughly $61,000, realized price near $56,000, and long-term holder cost basis at approximately $48,000, which he described as the "max pain" downside scenario.

According to Dragosch, Bitwise’s experimental “bottom-cycle probability model” began ticking higher last week even as onchain indicators remained below the extremes typically associated with prior cycle lows.

Bitcoin fell roughly 28% from a May high near $82,000 to below $60,000 during the latest drawdown. On Friday, the asset traded over $63,300, up 0.9% over the prior 24 hours, with a market capitalization of about $1.3 trillion.

Broader market research echoes a cautious read on cycle positioning. Galaxy Head of Firmwide Research Alex Thorn said bitcoin has not yet bottomed, noting that only four of 13 historical bottoming indicators have been triggered so far.

In a base-case scenario outlined in a report shared with The Block on Thursday, Galaxy projects a potential bottom between $40,000 and $46,000 sometime between now and Q4 2026. The firm also said traditional assumptions of 75% to 80% peak-to-trough declines are less likely as bitcoin cycle amplitudes compress.

Meanwhile, Dragosch attributed the recent sell-off primarily to roughly $2 billion in weekly exchange-traded product net outflows, equivalent to about 50,000 BTC being effectively sold into the market over a short period.

He distinguished this from Strategy's recent symbolic sale of 32 BTC, noting that corporate treasury buying from Strategy and other firms has not meaningfully decelerated.

On altcoins, Bitwise's Altcoin Excitement Index shows no signal, Dragosch said. The catalyst for an alt season hinges on whether the U.S. passes the crypto market-structure Clarity Act, with Polymarket pricing that probability at around 60% this year, according to Dragosch.