AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Gains ground to near 112.50, uptrend holds above 100-day SMA

The AUD/JPY cross gains ground near 112.40 during the early European session on Thursday, bolstered by the hawkish stance of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Macquarie analysts said the Australian central bank is likely to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged next week while delivering a hawkish message that reinforces market expectations for an interest-rate increase in August.

Nonetheless, the potential upside for the cross might be limited amid intervention fears from Japanese authorities. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a verbal warning, saying that the government is monitoring speculative moves and remains prepared to take decisive measures to prevent the domestic currency weakness. 

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the broader uptrend technically supported despite the latest pullback toward the lower Bollinger Band at 112.26. However, the Relative Strength Index (14) around 39 leans toward bearish momentum, suggesting recent downside pressure is not yet fully spent even as price clings to its underlying trend support.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band near 113.62, with the upper band up at 115.00 acting as the next hurdle if buyers regain control. On the downside, immediate support is reinforced by the lower Bollinger Band at 112.25, ahead of the more strategic 100-day SMA at 111.75, where a sustained break would hint at a deeper corrective phase within the broader bullish structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)