(Kitco News) – Citigroup’s commodities research team cut its gold price target for the next three months to $4,000 per ounce from $4,300, with analysts citing improving macro conditions and a less supportive demand backdrop as the key reasons, according to a research note published Monday.
“We see limited catalysts for a sustained move higher in the very near term,” the note said.
Citi pointed to a combination of factors, including stabilizing real yields, a stronger short-term dollar bias, and weakening safe-haven premiums amid easing geopolitical tensions. The analysts also noted that physical gold demand from central banks and ETF inflows have moderated, taking some steam out of the rally. “Near-term upside looks capped unless we see a fresh shock,” they said.
While the near-term outlook for gold is weaker, Citi analysts said there is still potential for gold prices to rise above $4,000 over the summer if the economy weakens sharply or if inflation reignites. Citi’s longer-term gold price forecast remains unchanged, with a 6-12 month target of $4,500 per ounce contingent on a dovish Fed pivot or increased geopolitical turmoil.
The banking giant’s gold price forecast has been scaled back sharply since the dramatic market correction earlier this year. On Jan. 13, Citi strategists led by Kenny Hu raised their 0–3-month target for gold to $5,000 per ounce and silver to $100 per ounce on Tuesday, as they projected the bull market for precious metals to continue through early 2026.
The strategists cited “heightened geopolitical risks, ongoing physical market shortages, and renewed uncertainty on Fed independence” as the reasons for the upgrade.
And while both metals set new all-time highs in the new year, Citi reiterated its expectation that silver will outperform gold – though they expect the base metals to eventually steal the spotlight.
“Our longstanding call for silver to outperform and for the precious metals bull market to broaden into industrial metals and for industrial metals to take centre stage over the same periods has worked well,” strategists wrote.
Citi’s January outlook assumed geopolitical tensions will ease after Q1, reducing demand for precious metals later in the year, with gold most vulnerable to a downside correction. However, the bank continues to expect industrial metals, particularly aluminum and copper, to perform well in the latter half of 2026.
