The United States and Iran are negotiating under one political condition: any agreement must be presented at home as a victory. That demand complicates efforts to extend the ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and prepare nuclear talks.
This is evident as Pakistan-mediated talks have exposed divisions over uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, maritime control, and security guarantees. Each government faces hard-liners who could reject concessions as weakness.
According to reports, President Donald Trump said during a tele-rally that Washington could declare “total victory” over Iran within two weeks. He said Tehran was prepared to accept limits preventing it from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Trump stated,
“They’re willing to give us everything, they’re willing to give us no nuclear weapon. I think we are winning that battle, but you’re really going to win it over the next two weeks when we declare total victory.”
Trump also tied the prospect of an agreement to relief in global energy markets, predicting that oil prices would fall as tensions eased and progress toward a deal accelerated. However, the president’s latest timeline echoes several previous promises that major developments were only “two weeks” away.
Initially, the ceasefire with Iran, announced on April 7, was intended to last two weeks while Washington and Tehran finalized an agreement to end the conflict. Yet, more than two months later, no comprehensive deal has emerged, and the conflict remains at the center of negotiations.
On the other hand, Vice President JD Vance reinforced the administration’s optimism during an appearance. He said Iran had presented meaningful proposals but stressed that every commitment made by Tehran would need to be independently verified.
Vance described a successful and enforceable agreement as a potential “home-run win” for the American people.
According to sources familiar with the matter, negotiators are discussing an immediate ceasefire extension and restored passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Per the reports, Washington would halt its blockade of Iranian vessels under the framework.
A second phase would address Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile and possible sanctions relief. This arrangement could unlock frozen Iranian assets, creating another political challenge for Trump.
The urgency increased after Israel and Iran exchanged strikes on Monday, their first attacks since the April ceasefire. Nonetheless, both sides stepped back from confrontation.
Chatham House analyst Sanam Vakil said sequencing is the central dispute. Washington wants early Iranian concessions, while Tehran wants early benefits before delivering commitments.
(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});Meanwhile, Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei remains in hiding and communicates through couriers, slowing responses to proposed changes. He faces pressure from Revolutionary Guards officers opposing concessions.
Those officers argue Iran should exploit its ability to close Hormuz and resist Washington after U.S.-Israeli strikes killed senior Iranian leaders. Their position has encouraged tougher military signaling.
Trump, on the other hand, faces pressure from Iran hawks and frustration over Tehran’s negotiating pace. Mediators said his envoys initially proposed a 10-year enrichment suspension during the April talks.
At the time, Iranian officials reportedly accepted that proposal, but Trump later demanded 20 years. Mediators said the reversal contributed to the collapse of that round.
Regardless, during the latest negotiations, Trump added conditions concerning Iran’s nuclear program and frozen assets. Iranian officials said those changes deepened their mistrust.
For now, the negotiations depend on more than technical terms. Their survival rests on whether both leaders can sell the same compromise as a decisive national victory at home.
Related: Iran Blocks the Bab al-Mandab Strait Amid Continued Israeli Strikes
