CITIC Securities: Stalemate in negotiations and accelerated inventory reduction drive oil prices up this week

Golden Ten Data reported on June 9 that a research report from CITIC Securities pointed out the market has underestimated the short-term and medium-term upside risks of oil prices. In the short term, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed for several weeks, forcing more oil wells to shut down, and prolonged closures will lead to permanent loss of some production capacity. In the long term, against a backdrop of low capital expenditure, both the number of DUC wells and new drilling wells in the United States have repeatedly hit historic lows, which also means the country’s high crude oil output is unsustainable. In the future, remaining supply and pricing power are expected to be in the hands of the Middle East. Previously, the market was overly optimistic about the speed of the end of Middle Eastern conflicts. However, contradictions in the real world have become increasingly evident, and recently, the market has started to gradually price in the long-term rise in oil prices. Potential inflation risks also deserve attention.