Dogecoin volatility hits its lowest since 2023 with major ETF inflows! What are investors expecting before the SpaceX IPO?

Rare technical squeeze in the charts

Perhaps the most striking development from a technical perspective is the extraordinary contraction of Bollinger Bands on Dogecoin’s weekly chart. The gap between the upper and lower bands has now shrunk to just 35 percent. With the upper band currently at 0.111 dollars, this zone is emerging as a key resistance point that traders are closely watching.

To clarify: Bollinger Bands are a popular technical analysis tool used to gauge volatility within a given period. Tightening bands often signal declining market volatility, a setup that may precede significant price movements.

The ongoing squeeze unfolds against a backdrop of softness across the broader crypto market. Between June 1 and June 7, DOGE lost 14 percent of its value, ending the week at 0.0862 dollars. In the thick of the sell-off, prices briefly touched 0.07 dollars, marking the lowest point since February 2024.

Massive unwinding of leveraged bets

The spot market’s downturn also triggered pronounced shifts in Dogecoin’s derivatives landscape. As of June 8, the total open interest in DOGE futures fell to 1.04 billion dollars. This represents a dramatic drop from the October 2025 all-time high of 6.01 billion dollars, nearly a sixfold decrease. The broad unwinding of excessive leverage could reduce the risk of cascading liquidations, setting the stage for more stable price action going forward.

The net cumulative inflow into US spot Dogecoin ETFs rose from 9.63 million dollars to 12.44 million dollars between May 1 and June 8, 2026. This continued institutional buying suggests appetite for DOGE remained strong even during price declines.

Two possible outcomes before the SpaceX IPO

This period of speculative lull, not coincidentally, aligns with the buzz around SpaceX’s expected IPO on Friday. SpaceX, Elon Musk’s flagship company in space travel and satellite internet, brings a fresh set of scenarios for market participants.

In the first scenario, analysts anticipate that once SpaceX shares start trading, major investors could shift exposure from riskier digital assets into equities. Notably, SpaceX reportedly holds 18,712 BTC on its balance sheet, making its stock an attractive and regulated alternative for some players.

On the other hand, some retail traders are drawing on Elon Musk’s earlier hints—particularly his February statement about using Dogecoin to help fund lunar missions. For this group, the market excitement around SpaceX gives fresh momentum to DOGE, which they view as a buy signal ahead of the IPO.

Institutional inflows bolster price expectations

While short-term traders have been closing positions, data suggests institutional capital is quietly adding exposure. According to SoSoValue, the total net inflow into US spot Dogecoin ETFs rose from 9.63 million dollars to 12.44 million dollars between May 1 and June 8, 2026—a robust increase of approximately 29.17 percent.

Despite Dogecoin’s market dip, this inflow points to larger funds viewing the decline as a buying opportunity. The key threshold remains the 0.1 dollar level. Analysts say a breakout from the current squeeze could gain clarity once SpaceX shares begin trading on public markets.