US Dollar: Fed stress test shapes path into June FOMC – DBS
DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee argues that strong US nonfarm payrolls and a projected jump in May CPI to 4.2% YoY should keep the Dollar supported into the June FOMC. However, he warns that USD strength may fade afterwards if new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh cannot convincingly defend Federal Reserve independence during what he calls a structural "stress test".
USD support into but not after FOMC
"Last Friday’s significantly stronger US nonfarm payrolls report has forced the market to price out any remaining structural easing bias, putting the prospect of a Fed hike in 2026 firmly back on the table."
"Apart from May’s 172k beating the 88k consensus, the upward revision to April’s 115k to 172k should neutralize the hawkish setups expected from other central banks in the Eurozone, Japan, and New Zealand, keeping the USD bid into the June 16-17 FOMC meeting."
"On June 10, markets will brace for May CPI inflation to jump to a three-year high of 4.2% YoY."
"In summary, the upcoming June FOMC meeting is no longer just a routine policy review."
"The USD’s trajectory will depend not solely on incoming data but on whether the Fed can survive its first major structural "stress test" without cracking from within."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
MSCI drops Strategy, Bitcoin eyes $70,000 as ETF outflows hit $300 million
AI servers + iPhone Duo dual engines drive, Foxconn Q3 net profit surges 34%, exceeding expectations
The financial report shows that Hon Hai's net profit for the third quarter reached TWD 77.5 billion, exceeding expectations, while revenue hit a record high of TWD 3.03 trillion. AI servers have become the primary growth engine, with the goal of capturing 50% of the global market share within two years and raising the gross margin to 10%. iPhone Duo sales are expected to reach up to 16 million units. Hon Hai Chairman Liu Yangwei stated that the shortage of memory chips and components will continue until 2027, and the performance forecasts for the company's four major product categories have been raised.
Applied Materials (AMAT): Can Earnings Extend a 24% Rebound?
With CoreWeave fueling the AI frenzy, can Nebius (NBIS.US) defend the AI computing power rally with explosive performance?
At Wednesday’s US stock market close, strong earnings reports and financing plans from CoreWeave drove collective gains in the storage chip, AI chip, optical interconnect, and new cloud sectors. CoreWeave and Nebius surged by approximately 24.7% and 15.4%, respectively. However, after the bell, media reports regarding another extramarital affair involving Jensen Huang and discussions by the board about his tenure caused Nvidia to drop more than 8%, putting pressure on the prices of most AI computing power-related stocks.
Crypto prices
More
